Sarita PandeyAs we look ahead to what could be four years of a new U.S.-India foreign policy under a second Trump administration, it’s worth analyzing how this approach might differ from the current trajectory. A second Trump administration would likely take a distinct approach to India compared to the Biden administration, with implications for defense cooperation, business ties, investment, and regional alliances. Trump’s personal rapport with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, combined with his administration’s strong stance on China, would likely result in a more assertive strategy that positions India as a central ally in countering Chinese influence. Yet, Trump’s foreign policy style—transactional, often unpredictable, and highly focused on “America First” principles—could also introduce unique pressures and challenges for the U.S.-India relationship.
Strategic Partnership and Countering China
Trump’s administration would likely reinforce India’s role as a strategic counterweight to China, a priority solidified during his first term. The Trump administration’s focus on the Indo-Pacific strategy was the precursor to Biden’s “Quad” initiatives and emphasized India as an essential partner in balancing Chinese power in Asia. A renewed Trump term would likely continue this emphasis, but with a stronger tilt toward transactional expectations. Trump may expect clear reciprocal commitments from India, such as expanded military access or deeper involvement in regional security matters.
China recently displacing the U.S. as India’s largest trading partner adds complexity to this equation. This shift reflects India’s increasing imports from China, primarily in electronics, machinery, and chemicals, which are essential for India’s manufacturing sector. India also exports significant quantities of iron ore, cotton, and other raw materials to China, further boosting bilateral trade.
Despite strong strategic ties between India and the U.S., India’s economic relationship with China underscores a pragmatic approach on New Delhi’s part to meet its supply chain and production needs. However, the U.S. remains a major partner for India in technology, defense, and services trade, and this shift highlights India’s balancing act between economic reliance on China and strategic alignment with the U.S., particularly in countering Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific region.
Trump might push to regain the U.S.’s top trading position, urging India to reduce economic reliance on China, possibly by encouraging U.S. companies to invest in India or offering incentives for Indian companies to buy more American goods. However, Trump’s trade policies could also lead to tariffs or other measures to protect U.S. industry, creating friction if India is expected to comply with a more aggressive stance against China without fully addressing its economic ties to both superpowers.
Defense and Security Cooperation
Under Trump, defense cooperation with India would likely see further deepening, with both nations wary of China’s expanding military presence. Trump’s defense approach typically emphasizes direct, measurable benefits, so it’s possible we’d see a stronger push to sell advanced U.S. weaponry to India and expanded joint military exercises. Trump’s first term marked significant progress in arms deals, such as the sale of Apache helicopters and the S-70B Seahawk helicopters, and a second term could see more major defense contracts.
Additionally, Trump might encourage India to take a larger security role in the region, possibly seeking expanded naval access and cooperation agreements in the Indian Ocean. However, Trump’s inclination to reduce U.S. commitments abroad might mean expecting India to shoulder more security responsibilities independently. Trump’s focus on defense investments could likely mean more joint exercises and defense technology-sharing agreements, aiming to bolster India’s military infrastructure as a counterbalance to China.
The potential of ending legal cases against Indian operatives implicated in attempts to silence pro-Khalistan activists, such as Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, could become a bargaining chip for deeper security cooperation. Trump’s transactional approach might consider such moves as part of a broader security negotiation, though it would be highly controversial and could face resistance domestically within the U.S.
Economic Policies and Trade Relations
Trump’s administration would likely have a more contentious trade relationship with India, emphasizing fair trade practices that benefit American industries. Trump has historically pushed for reduced trade deficits, and he could demand more favorable trade terms or consider tariffs on certain Indian exports. This would echo the friction seen during his first term when he removed India from the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP), which had provided India duty-free access to U.S. markets for certain goods.
While Trump could use economic pressure to encourage India to reduce its dependence on Chinese goods, he might also incentivize American companies to diversify their supply chains by investing in India. He may support initiatives encouraging technology transfer and R&D collaborations, positioning India as a hub for U.S. tech companies. However, any push for “America First” economic policies could make Indian businesses wary, potentially straining the relationship if Trump’s policies disrupt India’s access to U.S. markets.
Investment and Industry
Investment under a Trump administration could be bolstered by a focus on manufacturing and supply chain diversification away from China. Trump might advocate for U.S. firms to relocate their manufacturing bases to India, as he did with other allies. This could result in further investments in India’s technology and industrial sectors.
For the tech industry, where India plays a pivotal role as a talent and outsourcing hub, Trump’s restrictive immigration policies could have mixed effects. His stance on H-1B visas impacted Indian IT professionals, and a return to such policies might strain this sector. Conversely, if Trump prioritizes U.S. investments in India as part of countering China, he may take a more lenient stance on these visas to facilitate partnerships in technology and innovation.
Russia Policy and Its Implications for India
Trump’s stance on Russia would add another layer of complexity to U.S.-India relations. During his first term, Trump was often more conciliatory toward Russia than traditional U.S. foreign policy orthodoxy, which could benefit India as it balances its defense and energy ties between Washington and Moscow. India has historically relied on Russia for military hardware, and the Biden administration’s pressure on India over these ties has been a point of contention. A Trump administration may take a softer approach, allowing India more leeway in maintaining its defense and energy ties with Russia.
If Trump’s foreign policy avoids confrontation with Russia, India could continue its balancing act, fostering strong relationships with both the U.S. and Russia without the pressure seen under Biden. This would allow India to proceed with defense procurements from Russia and maintain energy deals without risking U.S. sanctions or diplomatic pushback.
Immigration Policies and People-to-People Ties
A Trump administration’s approach to immigration would likely impact U.S.-India ties, especially regarding the H-1B visa program. Trump previously limited these visas, affecting Indian tech workers and firms with significant Indian workforces. Should these restrictions return, they could hamper the flow of skilled workers between the two nations, potentially impacting industries reliant on this talent exchange.
Trump’s policies could also affect Indian students in the U.S., as stricter immigration and visa policies could discourage students from choosing U.S. institutions, driving them toward other countries like Canada or the UK. This could influence future economic ties and reduce the cultural exchange that has long bolstered U.S.-India relations.
In Conclusion
A second Trump administration would likely see a more transactional and confrontational approach to U.S.-India relations than the Biden administration. Trump would position India as a strategic counterweight to China but expect clear reciprocal commitments and possibly make demands for specific economic and military concessions. While defense ties and security cooperation could deepen, trade tensions may rise, and immigration policies could disrupt key sectors.
Trump’s approach to Russia would give India breathing room to maintain its strategic autonomy, potentially strengthening India’s balancing act. However, the emphasis on “America First” and a results-oriented foreign policy could test India’s flexibility as it navigates its partnerships with both the U.S. and China. Ultimately, a Trump administration would likely bring both opportunities and challenges for India, reinforcing the relationship’s strategic importance but demanding more from India as a partner.
