Abu Rushd
M. Zakir Hossain Khan
Salman ChowdhuryUnder Dr. Yunus, Bangladesh stands at a very critical junction to the Rohingya crisis due to emerging developments in Rakhine State of Myanmar. Only recently, as news came out, the Rakhine Buddhist ethnic armed group demanding control over the Rakhine area, Arakan Army, has reportedly taken complete control of strategic areas including the town of Maungdaw commanding a stretch of 271 kilometers sharing its border with Bangladesh. The change in power dynamics has raised concerns of possible violence against the Rohingya, a Muslim minority previously persecuted in the region.
Traditional reactive diplomacy has been ineffective against Myanmar’s tactics of stalling negotiations and spreading false narratives. In such a complex landscape, Bangladesh needs to have a pro-active approach by taking diplomatic and strategic high grounds that will force Myanmar and the AA into negotiating on safe and dignified return of the Rohingya.
A Battlefield Analogy: More Relevant Than Ever
In battle, securing the strategic high ground means the difference between commanding the fight and being at its mercy. The elevated position provides unparalleled benefits in warfare: a clear view of enemy movements, occupation of a defendable position and the ability to dictate the pace and direction of engagement. From this vantage point, options available to an adversary grow few, their resources drained and their outcomes increasingly dictated by those holding the high ground.
The same principle applies to Bangladesh’s approach to the Rohingya crisis. Here, the high ground does not refer to a physical position but to a diplomatic, economic and strategic one. This would, therefore, mean keeping ASEAN partners in line, using global tools such as the BURMA Act to Bangladesh’s advantage and presenting clear, unified messaging to corner Myanmar’s junta and the Arakan Army along with any other group. With this high ground, Bangladesh transforms the crisis into a controlled engagement, forcing the factions of Myanmar to respond on terms that do not violate the national security of Bangladesh.
Why Diplomatic Firefighting Fails: A History of Redundancy
Bangladesh has long relied on reactive diplomacy to respond to the Rohingya crisis. However, Myanmar’s tactics of stalling the negotiations, spreading false narratives and depending on China, Russia and India for cover have always worked at cross-purposes with such an approach. The previous government’s coy attitude, especially toward China and Russia, allowed these major powers to cover Myanmar from accountability. They provided political and economic support to Myanmar’s junta, considering their interests in Myanmar’s resources and strategic locations over humanitarian concerns.
China’s investment in Myanmar through BRI, Russia’s military support to the junta and India’s strategic interest in containing China’s influence have all played a role in making the crisis last longer. Stability within Myanmar’s borders has been preferred by these powers over human rights and consequently, they protect Myanmar from international repercussions. Given this reality, an approach that relies on isolated diplomatic appeals and ad-hoc negotiations will keep being crushed by failure.
The strategic high ground offers an exit from this cycle. That requires creating leverage that Myanmar, the Arakan Army, and even their international allies must wince at. By constructing a strong coalition in ASEAN with anchorage both in moral and practical incentives, Bangladesh could elevate its demands and make the cost of inaction too high for Myanmar and its supporters.
Track 1: State-Level Diplomacy – Building a United Front with ASEAN
First, it has to be state-level diplomacy, whereby Bangladesh has to approach the leaders of ASEAN directly. The purpose here is to construct a united regional stance that brings out the bigger risks for having a destabilized Rakhine State. Speaking individually with each head of state, Bangladesh can really communicate that the Rohingya crisis is an issue of regional security, stability in trade and humanitarian standards, not just about borders.
ASEAN has long been divided over Myanmar, with some members favoring engagement and others pushing for punitive measures. It is Bangladesh’s task, therefore, to bridge the gap and unite the ASEAN countries in the common interest of a strong message: stability in Myanmar and specifically, in Rakhine State is key to regional security. The simmering conflict in Rakhine risks becoming the haven for extremist recruitment, trafficking and cross-border violence under the recent gains by the Arakan Army. Rightfully presenting the crisis as a threat to every ASEAN nation’s security could help Bangladesh get a greater commitment from ASEAN leaders in applying sustained, coordinated pressure on Myanmar.
Track 2: Think Tank, Policy and Research Advocacy – Providing a Data-Driven Narrative
While state-level engagements lay a diplomatic foundation, the second track involves think tanks and policy organizations, which reinforce Bangladesh’s position with rigorous, data-driven research.
It can work in collaboration with the ASEAN-aligned policy organizations to generate robust evidence on the economic, security and humanitarian fallouts of the crisis. The policy reports, if provided with credibility, will offer a powerful case for ASEAN engagement through documentation of the costs of instability in Rakhine and the human rights abuses record of the Arakan Army against the Rohingya. Three areas of focus should be given top priority:
– Human Rights and Security Violations: Document how the junta and the Arakan Army treat the Rohingya and how such abuses contribute to regional instability.
– Economic Impact: Explain how instability in Rakhine disrupts trade routes, impacts tourism and affects cross-border investments. This will be an appeal to the economic interests of ASEAN countries.
– Security Threats: Emphasize how stateless Rohingya communities might be exposed to radicalization and the potential spillover implications of this affecting the security of neighboring countries.
The objective here is to create a clear and unmistakable image of the fact that the Rohingya crisis is not an isolated issue but, rather, a common regional threat. The documentation of evidence shall provide support to state-level diplomacy by presenting demands from Bangladesh for dignified repatriation based not only on humanitarian needs but also on regional stability.
Track 3: Military Cooperation – Creating Strategic Readiness
The last track is reinforcing military alliances, mostly via joint exercises with willing ASEAN countries. While the first line of defense is diplomatic, a visible military presence shows all parties involved, especially Myanmar, that Bangladesh and its allies will not hesitate to take necessary measures to protect regional security if the situation were to further deteriorate. Making use of the BURMA Act, Bangladesh gains access to more resources for joint exercises and signals to the power holders in Myanmar, most notably the Arakan Army, that it has both diplomatic and defensive allies. Allied forces in joint exercises send a strong but not confrontational message to Myanmar: Bangladesh is ready, supported and able to defend its interests should destabilization spill across Myanmar’s borders and terms are not met in regards to Rohingya repatriation. To the Arakan Army, which has increasingly gained confidence with its successes in Rakhine, this military readiness is a sobering reminder that any kind of escalation leading to a challenge of regional stability will have real consequences.
The Impact of Strategic High Ground on Myanmar’s Actors
Securing strategic high ground recalibrates Myanmar’s internal and external calculations, creating pressure points that compel both the junta and the Arakan Army to reconsider their resistance to Rohingya repatriation. Here is how Bangladesh’s strategy forces Myanmar’s actors to the negotiating table:
• Forcing the Arakan Army to Confront Costs: Their control over Rakhine is currently unchallenged, feeding a sense of autonomy and overconfidence. A united ASEAN position, backed by regional military cooperation, that is alive and kicking and giving them assurance that their activities will be closely monitored and continued abuses will trigger broader opposition, will build leverage in Bangladesh’s favor. For the Arakan Army, engaging in genuine negotiations on Rohingya repatriation becomes a way to legitimize their rule rather than risking broader backlash.
• Challenging Myanmar’s Allies: Countries that have traditionally protected Myanmar from international repercussions, choosing their own geopolitical gains over human rights. But a unified ASEAN response makes it harder for these countries to justify their support. With ASEAN nations unified in their stance, Myanmar’s allies face increased diplomatic isolation if they continue to back a regime that resists regional stability. For China, which values its influence in ASEAN, Bangladesh’s position, supported by ASEAN unity, will demand a recalibration of its stance.
• Transforming the Rohingya Crisis into a Regional Security Issue: By generating policy-backed proof of the risks that an unstable Rakhine poses to ASEAN, Bangladesh can transform the crisis from a national issue into a regional security threat. This framework forces ASEAN to act in unison, which renders Myanmar’s opposition to Rohingya repatriation an impossible stance to hold.
Dr. Yunus’ Leadership Beyond Borders
By taking a holistic approach, Bangladesh can turn the Rohingya crisis from a protracted humanitarian issue into an opportunity for regional leadership and stability. In securing the strategic high ground, Bangladesh is at an advantageous position to dictate the terms of engagement with Myanmar’s factions and their international allies to address the crisis in earnest. Such an approach would ensure that the Rohingya return safely to their home country and at the same time establish Bangladesh as a proactive leader in regional geopolitics, defending justice, human rights, and regional security. Thus, Bangladesh will set the precedent for the resolution of complex regional challenges with solidarity and a unifying vision for peace.
