{"id":4300,"date":"2022-11-15T14:07:20","date_gmt":"2022-11-15T14:07:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.saperspectives.net\/?p=4300"},"modified":"2023-02-26T15:53:02","modified_gmt":"2023-02-26T15:53:02","slug":"whats-next-for-bangladeshi-politics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.saperspectives.net\/old\/whats-next-for-bangladeshi-politics\/","title":{"rendered":"What\u2019s Next for Bangladeshi Politics?"},"content":{"rendered":"[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]\r\n

Since July 2022, Bangladeshi opposition parties, especially the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), have been holding\u00a0rallies<\/a>\u00a0throughout the\u00a0country<\/a>. Though Bangladesh has experienced political volatility and regular general strikes in the past, the ruling Bangladesh Awami League (BAL) has held a monopoly on organizing political rallies and\u00a0cracked down<\/a>\u00a0on public demonstrations by opposition parties in recent years. The presence of opposition on the street \u2013 with hundreds of thousands joining opposition rallies \u2013 marks a change in the country\u2019s political scene. In response to the protests, the BAL has orchestrated\u00a0transport strikes<\/a>\u00a0to deter citizens from joining the demonstrations, reportedly\u00a0attacked<\/a>\u00a0rally attendees, and recently imposed\u00a0restrictions<\/a>\u00a0on the flow of information.<\/p>\r\n\r\n

What is behind this sudden intensification of these anti-government demonstrations, and what implications will it have on the country\u2019s well-being? While Bangladesh\u2019s growing economic crisis has contributed to the growing political discontent, the increase in public demonstrations reflects the increased anger about the BAL\u2019s autocratic style of governance and fears about how it may handle the general elections scheduled for the end of 2023 or early 2024. The escalating face-off between the government and the opposition will likely lead to heightened violence in the coming months, further persecution of critics by the government, and the potential weakening of the ruling party\u2019s grip over the situation. The worsening economic crisis may create a large pool of disgruntled citizens who will look for avenues to register their grievances, while the ruling party will try to keep the situation under its control by all means necessary.<\/p>\r\n\r\n

Growing Economic Woes<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n

Bangladesh is facing a swelling economic crisis, which has compounded political dissent. Recent demonstrations began after the government announced\u00a0price hikes<\/a>\u00a0to the fuel and energy sectors in August, increasing overnight fuel prices by more than 50 percent. The unprecedented hike came on the heels of growing costs of essentials since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. Despite repeated assurances from\u00a0international organizations<\/a>\u00a0and local\u00a0experts<\/a>\u00a0that the country is not in an economic crisis, the decline in foreign exchange reserves, a downward trend of remittances, and a trade\u00a0deficit<\/a>\u00a0indicate hard times ahead.\u00a0Inflation<\/a>\u00a0has reached its highest in decades. According to a\u00a0World Bank report<\/a>, Bangladesh has experienced the highest price hike of essentials among the five South Asian countries.<\/p>\r\n

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Though Bangladesh has experienced political volatility and regular general strikes in the past, the ruling Bangladesh Awami League (BAL) has held a monopoly on organizing political rallies and cracked down on public demonstrations by opposition parties in recent years.
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Rolling\u00a0blackouts<\/a>\u00a0have reached unprecedented levels, as government offices, banks, and even schools are now required to close more frequently and reduce hours to accommodate energy cuts. Power outages have increased after a\u00a0national grid failure<\/a>\u00a0in early October, which left\u00a080 percent<\/a>\u00a0of the country in the dark for hours.\u00a0Fuel shortages<\/a>\u00a0render Bangladesh\u2019s power plants inoperable, causing severe load-shedding disrupting\u00a0industrial production<\/a>, and contributing to price hikes of daily necessities and\u00a0wage cuts<\/a>. The government, on the one hand, is extending its\u00a0deadline<\/a>\u00a0to resolve the situation, while on the other hand, claiming that there is\u00a0no solution<\/a>\u00a0in sight. This proves that the BAL government has no intention of addressing the structural causes of this\u00a0crisis<\/a>: years of economic mismanagement, cronyism, and unsustainable infrastructure developments to gain performance legitimacy.<\/p>\r\n\r\n

Bangladesh\u2019s Human Rights Concerns<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n

The growing protests challenge the BAL\u2019s ostensible control over the administration and politics, which has been consolidated over the past decade. Elections in\u00a02014<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a02018<\/a>, described by international media and observers as highly rigged, delivered unprecedented victories to Sheikh Hasina, who now holds power for the third consecutive term since 2009. Human rights groups have documented the increasing incidences of human rights violations under her administration since 2009, such as extrajudicial killings and\u00a0enforced disappearances<\/a>. The outgoing Chief of the UN Human Rights Council,\u00a0Michele Bachelet<\/a>, raised concerns during her visit to Bangladesh in August 2022. The United States Treasury imposed\u00a0sanctions<\/a>\u00a0on the elite police force called the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) and seven of its current and former officers in December 2021. The Bangladesh government\u2019s response to these concerns has consisted of\u00a0harassing<\/a>\u00a0families of the victims, targeting\u00a0families<\/a>\u00a0of expat critics,\u00a0silencing<\/a>\u00a0human rights organizations, and\u00a0rewarding<\/a>\u00a0alleged rights violators.<\/p>\r\n\r\n

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Since the beginning of these demonstrations, the government has intensified\u00a0persecuting<\/a>\u00a0opposition activists and critics: for example, in July and August, offices and houses of opposition leaders were ransacked, several activists died, and thousands have been\u00a0arrested<\/a>. Nonetheless, the demonstrations have still gained strength, as reflected in the size of the recent gatherings.<\/p>\r\n\r\n

The Bangladeshi government recently procured technology that will allow it to\u00a0intercept<\/a>\u00a0encrypted messages in the popular messaging service called Telegram, adding to its existing sophisticated\u00a0surveillance<\/a>\u00a0capacity. The government has also declared 29 government institutions as Critical Information Infrastructure (CII<\/a>), and deemed access to these punishable offenses under the draconian\u00a0Digital Security Act (DSA).<\/a>\u00a0The DSA, which came into effect in October 2018, has been used by the government and its supporters to suppress dissent. The government has\u00a0accused<\/a>\u00a0at least 2,889 persons under the law until August 2022.<\/p>\r\n\r\n

What\u2019s Next: Looking Ahead to Elections<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n

Concerns have emerged about what the next election will look like and the ability of Bangladeshi citizens to cast their votes freely. The actions of the Election Commission (EC), which is responsible for holding elections, have indicated that its capability to organize free and inclusive elections might be in question. Appointed in February 2022, the new Election Commission (EC) has yet to gain the trust of voters or opposition political parties. For instance, during elections in the northern district of Gaibandha on October 12, the EC\u00a0halted voting<\/a>\u00a0due to \u201cirregularities\u201d after ruling party candidates captured almost all the polling stations. However, the EC didn\u2019t take precautions to stop blatant rigging,\u00a0failed<\/a>\u00a0to deter the ruling party supporters on the day of voting and the local administration didn\u2019t act\u00a0neutrally<\/a>.<\/p>\r\n

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A fair and inclusive election in Bangladesh is unlikely unless the government makes reforms to ensure a level playing field.<\/p>\r\n

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The EC has decided to introduce Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs<\/a>) in half of the 300 parliamentary constituencies after the\u00a0Prime Minister<\/a>\u00a0suggested that EVMs will be fully available by the next election cycle. Although\u00a0civil society<\/a>\u00a0organizations and a majority of opposition political parties have protested using EVMs, the EC paid little attention to their concerns. Worse yet, the EC\u00a0doctored<\/a>\u00a0the opinion of the opposition parties to advance the use of EVMs in future elections. \u00a0A staggering\u00a0Taka 8,711 crore<\/a>\u00a0(approximately US$ 870 million) has been\u00a0allocated to buy<\/a>\u00a0EVMs, which do not have a voter-verifiable paper audit trail (VVPAT<\/a>) system.<\/p>\r\n\r\n

Opposition parties have also insisted that they will not join the\u00a0election<\/a>\u00a0under the government led by Sheikh Hasina, but the\u00a0BAL<\/a>\u00a0is in no mood to accept the demand. Support for holding elections under a neutral government has grown among citizens after the 2018 election due to the suspected lack of impartiality of civil administration, the Election Commission (EC), and law enforcement agencies at the expense of ordinary Bangladeshis. The situation is no different this time around, as the police continue to\u00a0act<\/a>\u00a0in\u00a0favor<\/a>\u00a0of the BAL. The government\u2019s recent decision to send a high-ranking civil servant and\u00a0three police officials<\/a>\u00a0into \u201cforced retirement\u201d is indicative of a purge to keep both administration and police in line ahead of the election. A fair and inclusive election in Bangladesh is unlikely unless the government makes reforms to ensure a level playing field. Growing discontent with the economy and frustrations about authoritarian governance are pushing the citizens to the brink, while the incumbent government seems intent on confronting the opposition with force. Upholding the status quo means more crackdowns on the opposition and the suppression of dissenting voices in the coming months. However, opposition parties have remained fragmented and have yet to agree on a common course of action. All these trends point to a volatile future for Bangladeshi politics while economic woes increase and ordinary people continue to suffer.<\/p>\r\n\r\n

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COURTESY BY : SOUTH ASIAN VOICES<\/strong><\/p>\r\n[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row]","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text] Since July 2022, Bangladeshi opposition parties, especially the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), have been holding\u00a0rallies\u00a0throughout the\u00a0country. Though Bangladesh has experienced political volatility and regular general strikes in the past, the ruling Bangladesh Awami League (BAL) has held a monopoly on organizing political rallies and\u00a0cracked down\u00a0on public demonstrations by opposition parties in recent years. The…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4231,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"thb-sponsors":[],"class_list":["post-4300","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.saperspectives.net\/old\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4300","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.saperspectives.net\/old\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.saperspectives.net\/old\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.saperspectives.net\/old\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.saperspectives.net\/old\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4300"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.saperspectives.net\/old\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4300\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4301,"href":"https:\/\/www.saperspectives.net\/old\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4300\/revisions\/4301"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.saperspectives.net\/old\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4231"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.saperspectives.net\/old\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4300"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.saperspectives.net\/old\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4300"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.saperspectives.net\/old\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4300"},{"taxonomy":"thb-sponsors","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.saperspectives.net\/old\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/thb-sponsors?post=4300"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}